日本“南海海槽特大地震”风险最新评估：预计将有近30万人遇难

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标题：日本“南海海槽特大地震”风险最新评估：预计将有近30万人遇难

2025年3月31日，日本政府公布了关于“南海海槽特大地震”的最新损失估算数据，引发广泛关注。据报道，若该地震发生，可能导致的经济损失高达292万亿日元，较2013年的估算值（220万亿日元）大幅上升。此外，死亡人数可能达到29.8万人，这一数字是2011年“3·11日本地震”死亡人数的近20倍。

南海海槽地震的震源位于日本东海地区以西的太平洋沿岸，从静冈县延伸至南九州海域。这一区域是菲律宾海板块与欧亚板块的交界地带，由于板块俯冲作用，积累了巨大的能量，周期性释放时会引发特大地震。上一次南海海槽特大地震发生在1940年代中期，造成了严重的人员伤亡和经济损失。

日本政府的最新估算数据不仅揭示了潜在的巨大经济损失，也暴露了日本防灾体系的不足。例如，老旧建筑物的抗震能力较低、沿海地区的海啸防护设施不够完善。为此，日本政府加大了防灾投入，推进老旧建筑物的抗震改造、升级海啸预警系统以及加强社区防灾演练。

然而，面对潜在的巨大经济损失和人员伤亡，这些努力是否足够仍是一个值得探讨的问题。去年2月，日本气象厅发布的评估数据显示，南海海槽在未来10年内发生特大地震的概率在30%左右，未来30年内的发生概率在70%到80%之间，未来50年内的发生概率为90%甚至更高。

英文翻译

Latest Risk Assessment for Japan’s “Nankai Trough Mega Earthquake”: Nearly 300,000 People Expected to Die

On March 31, 2025, the Japanese government released the latest damage estimation data concerning the "Nankai Trough Major Earthquake," which has garnered significant attention. According to reports, if the earthquake were to occur, the economic loss could reach a staggering 292 trillion yen, a significant increase from the estimate of 220 trillion yen in 2013. Moreover, the death toll could reach 298,000 people, nearly 20 times the number of deaths in the 2011 "3·11 Japan Earthquake."

The epicenter of the Nankai Trough earthquake is located in the Pacific Ocean off the western coast of the Tokai region in Japan, extending from Shizuoka Prefecture to the southern Kyushu sea area. This region marks the convergence of the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate, where the subduction of these plates has accumulated immense energy, periodically released in the form of major earthquakes. The last major earthquake in the Nankai Trough occurred in the mid-1940s, causing significant human casualties and economic damage.

The latest estimation data from the Japanese government not only highlights the potential for enormous economic loss but also exposes the inadequacies in Japan's disaster prevention system. For instance, the seismic resistance of old buildings is low, and the tsunami protection facilities in coastal areas are not robust enough. In response, the Japanese government has increased its investment in disaster prevention, promoting seismic retrofitting of old buildings, upgrading the tsunami warning system, and strengthening community disaster drills.

However, in the face of potential massive economic losses and human casualties, the question of whether these efforts are sufficient remains a topic of discussion. Last February, the Japan Meteorological Agency released assessment data showing that the probability of a major earthquake occurring in the Nankai Trough in the next 10 years is about 30%, in the next 30 years is between 70% to 80%, and in the next 50 years is 90% or even higher.

标签 : 日本 南海 海槽 特大地震 遇难 评估